The Gossip
Lately there have been a number of rumors in media outlets about strain in Harris & Emhoff's marriage. Some pieces (mostly tabloids, entertainment / gossip outlets) point to claims that Harris sees Doug as "dead weight," resurfaced controversies from Emhoff's past (including infidelity during his first marriage), and observations that they're doing more separate things professionally.
At the same time, there is more public evidence of stability. For example they recently celebrated their 11th wedding anniversary with affectionate posts, and have made public appearances together.
Emhoff's career moves are relevant: he has taken up a partner role at a law firm (Willkie Farr & Gallagher), splitting time between New York and Los Angeles. That suggests physical geographic separation is more of a logistical issue than necessarily a personal crisis—but separation in location often features in stories of marital tension.
What We Do Know
There's also the question of how credible the rumors are. Much of it comes from unnamed sources, tabloids, or opinion sites rather than verified insider leaks or official statements. As of now, I haven't seen a reputable news outlet citing a senior source confirming that Harris or Emhoff are planning a divorce or are on the verge of making such an announcement.
So how do these signals affect whether the 2% Polymarket price is too low, too high, or about right?
Given what we do know:
- Positive signals for "Yes" (announcement of intention to divorce in 2025) remain weak. No credible confirmation, no obvious upcoming trigger.
- Negative or stabilizing signals are strong: public showing of unity, anniversary posts, no obvious official statements indicating marital distress.
- Rumor/gossip creates a "noise floor" that might make a small probability plausible. People who trade on rumor or "what might break" factor in that possibility.
Final Thoughts
My sense is that the ~2% price is about right given current info. If anything, maybe slightly high for "Yes," given that nothing significant beyond rumors is proven. Still, here's what could move the "Yes" price meaningfully:
- A credible outlet (e.g. NYT, Washington Post, AP) publishing sourced information that either Harris or Emhoff is considering divorce
- Public behavior that strongly suggests separation: long periods not appearing together, staff or inner circle comments
- Legal filings or preparatory steps (divorce lawyer involvement, public statements or statements by representative)
- Major personal scandal that forces them to respond
So unless one of these appears, I expect the price to stay low.