Live prediction market odds for FIFA World Cup Group I Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-06-27
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of Group I in the FIFA World Cup. This event is crucial as it determines which teams advance to the knockout stage, impacting national pride and future matchups in the tournament.
France leads the “FIFA World Cup Group I Winner” event at 69.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Norway (20.5%), and Senegal (8.8%). A 2.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Team performance in qualifying matches, player injuries, and historical performance in World Cups can significantly affect the odds. Additionally, public sentiment and betting patterns also play a role.
The group stage matches for the FIFA World Cup are scheduled to begin on June 27, 2026. Teams will compete to secure their place in the knockout rounds.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares in the outcome of events, with prices reflecting the perceived probability of each outcome. As new information emerges, such as team lineups or match results, these prices can fluctuate.
FIFA World Cup Group I Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). France leads at 69% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Norway at 21%, Senegal at 9%.
France currently leads at 69% implied probability. Behind France, Norway at 21% and Senegal at 9% are the next closest contenders. A 2.5% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Senegal finish first in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
If teams are tied on points, the group winner is determined according to the official FIFA World Cup tiebreak criteria.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the team that wins Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
France
69.3% avg
